President Clinton signs NAFTA into law.

Given Friday’s Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and Trump’s condemnation of the decision and his move forward under different laws, it strikes me that the way the parties are regarding tariffs these days are laser-focused on what Donald Trump thinks. And neither of the directions the Democrats or the Republicans are going are ones that have been consistent with what the parities have been standing for for the past few decades. Below I am going to show you the splits on trade agreements, and you will see where the parties have been standing and to what degree:

House

North American Free Trade Agreement

Passed 234-200: D 102-156; R 132-43; 1 0-1, 11/17/93.

China Trade Normalization

Passed 237-197: R 164-57; D 73-139; I 0-1, 5/24/00.

Andean Trade Bill

Passed 215-212: R 190-27; D 25-184; I 0-1, 7/27/02.

Dominican Republic-Central America-Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act

Passed 217-215: R 202-27; D 15-188, 7/28/05.

U.S.-Oman Free Trade Agreement

Passed 221-205: R 199-28; D 22-177, 7/20/06.

U.S.-Peru Free Trade Agreement

Passed 285-132: D 109-116; R 176-16, 11//08/07.

South Korea Trade Agreement

Passed 278-151: R 219-21; R 59-130, 10/12/11.

U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement

Passed 262-167: R 231-9; D 31-158, 10/12/11.

U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement

Passed 300-129: R 234-6; D 66-123, 10/12/11.

Trade Facilities and Trade Enforcement Act (Conference Report)

Passed 256-158: R 232-3; D 24-155, 12/11/15.

Senate

North American Free Trade Agreement

Passed 61-38: D 27-28; R 34-10, 11/20/93.

China Trade Normalization

Passed 83-15: R 46-8; D 37-7, 9/19/00.

Andean Trade Bill – Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru

Passed 66-30: D 25-25; R 41-5, 5/23/02.

Dominican Republic-Central America-Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act

Passed 54-45: R 43-12; D 11-33, 6/30/05.

U.S.-Oman Free Trade Agreement

Passed 60-34: R 48-5; D 12-29, 6/29/06.

U.S.-Peru Trade Agreement

Passed 77-18: D 30-17; R 47-1, 12/04/07.

South Korea Trade Agreement

Passed 83-15: D 38-14; R 45-1, 10/12/11.

U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement

Passed 66-33: R 44-2; D 22-31, 10/12/11.

U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement

Passed 77-22: R 46-0; D 31-22, 10/12/11.

Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act (Conference Report)

Adopted 75-20: R 47-3; D 28-17, 2/11/16.

As you can see, strong majorities of Republicans have consistently favored trade agreements and Democrats have opposed them, although their margins of opposition are a bit more variable. Interestingly, the Senate tends to be more favorable to trade agreements than the House. However, part of the Trump base are people who are deeply opposed to “globalism” and part of this means trade agreements. Whether we like it or not, Trump is the center of the US political universe for the time being, and the parties’ stances on this issue are increasingly motivated by where he stands and what he is doing on trade. Most Republicans are scared to death of being primaried by someone who promises 100% loyalty to Trump, while Democrats by and large want to make showings of opposition to Trump, especially since many of their base supporters are outraged with them based on a perception that Democrats don’t do enough against him. Since Democratic base voters are a dime a dozen in my part of Washington, I’ve noticed that they don’t seem to have a real idea of what would be sufficient against him aside from immediate removal from office, but they don’t have a legal means to do it within reach (they would have to win 2/3’s of the Senate or short enough of that for a few Republican rebels to vote for conviction).