Bill Armstrong of Colorado, perhaps the GOP’s (and for conservatives) greatest success in a candidate who defeated a Democrat. He will be a future entry in my Great Conservatives series.

The 2022 midterm was one in which although the GOP gained the House, it was one of substantial disappointment as they had a net loss of one seat in the Senate and had a net loss of governor races. The results were especially bad in Michigan and Pennsylvania, in the former case Democrats got unified government on the state level for the first time in over 40 years. There were two fundamental factors that resulted in this dreadful outcome. The first being Trump using the legitimacy of the 2020 election outcome as a litmus test for his endorsement in primaries, which resulted in numerous underperforming candidates like Tudor Dixon and Doug Mastriano, who impacted the party downticket. The second factor was the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which heightened Democratic turnout. I have no regrets about the latter even if it cost the GOP some, but the former was beyond belief. It was so avoidable! This election was a bit better for the GOP in numeric gains, although they started at a worse position and won neither chamber of Congress, but did manage to have the numbers to sustain a filibuster should the GOP of the time unify. Then again, the parties were not as “ideologically responsible” then as now. The elements were there for a bad midterm for Jimmy Carter and the Democrats, but they managed in some places to mitigate the damage. Much like in 2022, Michigan proved a bright spot for Democrats in this midterm.

A midterm that could have been quite bad for President Jimmy Carter given the not-so-great state of the economy was mitigated by gains in some states, particularly Florida and Michigan. Some states such as Nebraska and Oklahoma replaced their arch-conservative Republican senators with considerably more moderate Democrats.

The states in which Republicans gained were:

Arkansas – Democratic Congressman Jim Guy Tucker retires to run for the Senate and is succeeded by Republican Ed Bethune.

California – Democratic Congressmen John J. McFall, John Krebs, and Mark Hannaford lose reelection to Republicans Norman Shumway, Chip Pashayan, and Dan Lungren respectively.

Colorado – Republican Congressman Bill Armstrong defeats Democratic Senator Floyd Haskell for reelection.

Georgia – Republican Newt Gingrich succeeds retiring Democratic Congressman John J. Flynt.

Illinois – Retiring Democratic Congressman George Shipley is succeeded by Republican Dan Crane.

Indiana – Democratic Congressman David Cornwell loses reelection to Republican H. Joel Deckard.

Iowa – In the Senate, Democrat Dick Clark loses reelection to Republican Roger Jepsen. In the House, Democrat Mike Blouin loses reelection to Republican Tom Tauke.

Kansas – Democratic Congresswoman Martha Keys loses reelection to Republican Jim Jeffries.

Kentucky – Democratic Congressman John Breckinridge loses renomination, and he is succeeded by Republican Larry Hopkins.

Maine – Republican Congressman William Cohen defeats Democratic Senator William Hathaway for reelection.

Minnesota – Senate seats held by Muriel Humphrey (widow of Hubert Humphrey) and Wendell Anderson are won by Republicans Dave Durenberger and Rudy Boschwitz, with Durenberger defeating nominee Bob Short and Boschwitz defeating Anderson for a full term. I wrote in more depth about this part of the 1978 midterms in my post of September 25, 2021, “The Minnesota Massacre”.

Mississippi – Congressman Thad Cochran succeeded the retiring Democrat James Eastland to the Senate. This is the first time since Reconstruction Mississippi elected a Republican to the Seante.

New Hampshire – Republican Gordon Humphrey defeats Democrat Thomas McIntyre for reelection to the Senate.

New York – Democratic Congressman Otis G. Pike retires and is succeeded by Republican/Conservative William Carney, and Democrat Edward Pattison loses reelection to Republican Gerald Solomon. However, Democrat Peter Peyser gains Republican Bruce Caputo’s seat as he retired to run for Lieutenant Governor of New York.

Pennsylvania – Democrats Josh Eilberg, Fred Rooney, and Joseph Ammerman lose reelection to Republicans Charles Dougherty, Donald Ritter, and William Clinger respectively. Democrat Eugene Atkinson succeeds retiring Republican Gary Myers.

South Carolina – Republican Carroll Campbell succeeds retiring Democratic Congressman James Mann.

Texas – Republican Tom Loeffler succeeds Democrat Bob Krueger, who ran for the Senate, while Republican Ron Paul defeats Democrat Bob Gammage for reelection.

Wisconsin – Republican Toby Roth defeats Democrat Robert Cornell for reelection.

Wyoming – Republican Dick Cheney succeeds retiring Democratic Congressman Teno Roncalio. Roncalio to this day is the last Democrat to represent Wyoming in Congress.

Mixed:

New Jersey – Democrat Bill Bradley wins the Senate seat held by Republican Clifford Case, who was defeated for renomination by conservative activist Jeffrey Bell. To this day Case is the last Republican to be elected to the Senate by the people of New Jersey. Republican Jim Courter defeats Democratic Congresswoman Helen Meyner for reelection in the House.

Ohio – Democrats gain a seat when Tony Hall succeeds retiring Republican Charles Whalen, while Republicans gain a seat with Lyle Williams defeating Charles Carney for reelection in a typically Democratic district.

South Dakota – Republican Representative Larry Pressler succeeds retiring Democrat James Abourezk to the Senate, but Democrat Tom Daschle succeeds him to the House.

The states in which Democrats gained were:

Connecticut – Republican Congressman Ronald Sarasin retires to run for Governor of Connecticut and is succeeded by Democrat William Ratchford.

Florida – Republican Louis Frey retires to run for Governor of Florida, and he is succeeded by Democrat Bill Nelson, while Republican J. Herbert Burke, beset by scandal, loses reelection to Democrat Edward Stack.

Maryland – Republican Congressman Newton Steers of Bethesda loses reelection to Democrat Michael Barnes. Both men are liberals.

Massachusetts – Republican Senator Ed Brooke loses reelection to Democratic Representative Paul Tsongas. Both men are liberals. Brooke was harmed by negative publicity surrounding his divorce.

Michigan – Republican Senator Bob Griffin, despite being a fairly prominent Senate Republican, loses reelection to Democrat Carl Levin, and Republican Congressmen Garry Brown and Al Cederberg lose reelection. Griffin’s reelection bid was harmed by his initial announcement that he would not run for another term.

Nebraska – Republican Senator Carl Curtis retires at 73, and in his place Democrat J. James Exon is elected. While normally Nebraska votes Republican, Exon was a popular governor who emphasized low spending and taxes.

Oklahoma – Republican Senator Dewey Bartlett retires due to his lung cancer diagnosis (he dies two months after leaving office), and he is succeeded by Democrat David Boren, a popular governor.

Washington – Representative John Cunningham of Seattle loses reelection to Democrat Mike Lowry. Cunningham’s election in 1977 was a bit of a fluke.

This election is in itself a last, as in it is the last time that a midterm for a Democratic president resulted in their party holding both houses of Congress. 1978 was a time in which the Democratic Party was structurally stronger, but the price was that it was a bigger tent party, thus being able to secure Senate victories in places such as Nebraska and Oklahoma with candidates who would not pass muster today in the party. What’s more, in this election, Democrats Richard Shelby of Alabama and Phil Gramm of Texas would be elected to their first terms; both men would have futures as Republican senators. Given this midterm, it seems a bit difficult to believe that the 1980 election would work out so well. Whether history repeats itself here we have yet to see…after all Biden was a big supporter of Carter and was the first politician outside of Georgia to endorse him in 1976 (Hurt).

References

1978 House of Representatives elections. Wikipedia.

Retrieved from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

1978 Senate elections. Wikipedia.

Retrieved from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_United_States_Senate_elections

Hurt, M. (2023 March 1). How Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden built an enduring friendship. Axios.

Retrieved from

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/01/jimmy-carter-joe-biden-friendship