(I know this is a spoiler, but this state’s flag is so cool!)

A question came to my mind recently, and that is what states have had their preferences best represented in presidential elections? Also, which ones have had their preferences least represented in said elections? I looked back to the first election all the way to 2020, and I found some results that are expected and a few not so much.

The five states that have voted for the winner the most are:

3. Pennsylvania (TIE, 81%) – I suppose this isn’t a great surprise, as Pennsylvania has historically been an electoral vote rich state and was one of the most Republican states in the nation from end of the War of the Rebellion to the Great Depression, an era in which Republicans won all but four presidential elections. Pennsylvania has trended a bit Democratic lately though, with Republicans only winning the state in 2016 since 1992.

3. California (TIE, 81%) – California frequently has either gone with the trends of the nation or been a trend-setter for the nation throughout its history. This is becoming a bit less true today than it was back in the day, as the state hasn’t voted for a Republican candidate for president since 1988. California doesn’t look like it will do so anytime soon: Democratic candidates haven’t gotten below 60% of the vote since 2008, and Biden won the state with 63% of the vote in 2020, the second best performance the Democratic candidate has had in the state’s history, only being outdone by FDR’s 1936 reelection.

2. Ohio (TIE, 82%) – Ah, Ohio, the classic bellwether state. Until 2020, the thinking was that whoever won Ohio won the presidential election. Indeed, until that point, over the last 100 years the only times the nation went against Ohio’s judgment was in 1944 and in 1960, the former happened as Thomas Dewey’s running mate was Ohio Governor John W. Bricker, and the latter was nationally a very close election. Ohio may be becoming less representative if its Republican trend is maintained or accelerates.

2. Illinois (TIE, 82%) – Illinois has gotten substantially more Democratic in recent years, to the point that Republicans write off winning the state in presidential elections, having last done so in 1988. However, it wasn’t always this way. “Will it play in Peoria?” as a figure of speech doesn’t exist for no reason, and Illinois, like Ohio, represented Middle America. It was one of the pivotal states that produced JFK’s win in 1960, and swung with the nation. The reason the state ties with Ohio despite its recent Democratic turn is because of its strong loyalty to the GOP from Reconstruction to the Great Depression.

1. New Mexico (WINNER, 89%) – In the state’s history from 1912 to present, New Mexico’s preference has been best represented. It was not until 1976 that their preference was rejected, when the voters narrowly preferred Gerald Ford to Jimmy Carter. There would only be two more occasions in which this happened: 2000, in which they very narrowly voted for Gore over Bush, and 2016, in which they voted for Clinton over Trump by 8 points. Their preferences have historically been extremely well-aligned to the national mood, and even if their preference loses in 2024, they will still be on top with an 86% win rate.

The five least represented are:

4. South Carolina (TIE, 57%) – South Carolina, although now a firmly Republican state, was once one of the most wedded to the Democratic Party, and this was really bad for its win rate from the end of Reconstruction to the Great Depression. Even in 1928, a year in which Republicans did astonishingly well in the South, nearly all South Carolina voters voted for Al Smith. A good deal of this result can be attributed to South Carolina being the last state to adopt the secret ballot. Voters would pick either the Democratic ballot or the Republican ballot, and everyone could see what the individual voter picked. Even if a voter may have preferred the Republican candidate, the social consequences of picking the Republican ballot could be quite significant, including loss of friendships and business. However, under the governorship of Strom Thurmond, the secret ballot was instituted in 1950, and people started voting more Republican. A prominent example was South Carolina’s Jimmy Byrnes, once a major supporter of the New Deal as well as FDR’s right-hand man on domestic affairs during World War II, was becoming more and more conservative and starting in 1952 he voted for Republican candidates for president. The states’ voters both declined to vote for Eisenhower and voted for Goldwater, significantly harming their win rate.

4. Texas (TIE, 57%) – Texas’ win-rate is substantially harmed by its voters’ refusal to vote for a Republican candidate for president until 1928. The state throughout its history has frequently had one distinct party preference in presidential races, and only the period of 1952 to 1980 was a time in which Texas could be said to be a swing state, thus their win-rate is tied with the fortunes of whatever party their voters pick.  

3. Alaska (56%) – Fun fact: Alaska has only once voted for the Democratic candidate for president! That was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Their voters’ staunch loyalty to Republican candidates for president since has made their electoral win rate completely tied in with the modern Republican Party.

2. Alabama (52%) – Alabama is spared from last place because a majority of their electors voted for John F. Kennedy in 1960 instead of Harry Byrd (who never announced his candidacy). This state’s history of presidential preferences is almost identical to its neighbor, Mississippi. Aside from 1960, the only time when the state did not vote as Mississippi did was in 1840, when Mississippi voted for Whig William Henry Harrison while Alabama stuck with Democrat Martin Van Buren. In this regard, Alabama has lived up to its rebel reputation.

1. Mississippi (LOSER, 51%) – The state that has had their way the least is Mississippi, with the nation selecting their voters’ preference for president only 51% of the time. Mississippi interestingly did quite well in getting their preferences before the 1860 election, as from their founding to 1856 their preference was chosen 80% of the time. However, the War of the Rebellion changed the environment for them a lot. After 1872, Mississippi became one of the most Democratic states in the nation. Like Alabama, they dissented from numerous landslides, such as Theodore Roosevelt in 1904, Warren Harding in 1920, Calvin Coolidge in 1924, Herbert Hoover in 1928, the Eisenhower victories, and LBJ in 1964. They also on three occasions voted for a third option: Strom Thurmond in 1948, Harry Byrd in 1960, and George Wallace in 1968. Mississippi is, quite unsurprisingly, the ultimate rebel state.

List of States in Order: