
Barack Obama, a True Underdog Story
As of writing, the latest polls have President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump leading among primary voters for the 2024 election. The primary voters, at least as of this moment, seem intent on having a rematch of 2020, which I’m sure will go off without a hitch. However, I, like many Americans, despair at the idea of us doing this again, so I think to the history of polling. I will not count incumbent presidents running again for recent history.
2000: Bush vs. McCain & Gore vs. Bradley
Neither Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) nor Bill Bradley (D-N.J.) really represented serious threats to Bush and Gore. Bradley was consistently behind in polling and didn’t win a single primary, although he came close in New Hampshire. McCain was a greater threat as he actually did win a few primaries, including a key one in New Hampshire, but he was consistently the underdog and he was done after the South Carolina primary. On a side note, this was the last Republican primary in which perennial candidate Harold Stassen, who had been governor of Minnesota in the 1940s and was now 93 years old, was even a thought. Two most conventional party primaries, it turns out, resulted in a most controversial election.
2004 – Kerry Rises Late
At around this time, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts was not the leading contender for the Democratic nomination. In August 2003, it was Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman leading for the nomination, with Kerry being in fourth. In September 2003, General Wesley Clark entered the race, causing a brief amount of enthusiasm for him with Kerry tied for third. After this enthusiasm, Governor Howard Dean of Vermont led for some time in the race, as late as January 2004 he was polling ahead of the others. However, after Kerry won the Iowa caucuses, his numbers surged and the primary race was over.
2008: The Insurgents Prevail
In June 2007, the leading Republican for the presidential nomination was Rudy Giuliani and the leading Democrat was Hillary Clinton. My, how times have changed! The first time a poll showed Obama tied with Clinton was in January 2008 (Whitesides). Not a single poll showed Obama in the lead against Clinton until Cook Political Strategies Poll in late January to early February 2008. Clinton regularly was posting double-digit leads against Obama in June of 2007. Giuliani was the favorite until December 2007, when Mike Huckabee began leading in polls and John McCain did not post a lead in a single poll until Pew Research’s conducted in December 19-30th 2007.
2012: Conventionality Prevails
In June 2011, Mitt Romney led in most polls and he did win the nomination. However, Newt Gingrich led in the majority of polling from October to December 2011 and Rick Santorum in February 2012 led in a minority of polls, but Romney was the favorite throughout. Again, my how times have changed!
2016: The Trump Train and the Independent Challenge for the Democrats
On June 16, 2015, Donald Trump announced his run for the Republican nomination for president, and in less than a month he came to consistently post leads in Republican polling, taking the lead in the fractured clown-car Republican primary from Jeb Bush. This was even before the first debate!
Hillary Clinton was the all-around favorite, although Bernie Sanders gave a spirited run and posted leads in a few polls between February and June 2016. Perhaps if he had switched from Independent to Democrat he could have done better.
2020: Again, Conventionality Prevails
Joe Biden was leading in June 2019, so no change there. He was frequently ahead in national polling and for the Republicans, former Congressman Joe Walsh and former Governor Bill Weld were unconvincing competition against Trump for renomination on the Republican side.
The 2024 Republican Primary: A Challenge for Insurgents, But Not Insurmountable
Looking at the polling history provides some hope for people who wish for the Republican Party to move on from Trump, but the weight of recent polling history does find that in more cases than not, the candidate who leads in polling at this point wins the primary. In June 2015, Trump had yet to lead the field, and the Democratic nominations of 2004 and the Republican and Democratic nominations of 2008 present precedents for a turnaround. There are, however, some different circumstances than usual. Trump is a challenge and the reason he is is because there hasn’t been a candidate to have as much of a sway over certain voters. Reagan was always more popular among the general public, and his base support was strong, but there is a part of the GOP base for which supporting Trump is a matter of religious zeal. He is for such people a flawed man “chosen by God”, you see, like monarchs of old were claimed to have been. However, there are a number of fundamentals that work strongly against his viability in a general election. He is aging, he has a complete lack of discipline (which contributes to his appeal among some), he is a slave to his own personal animosities, the indictments/investigations, and his political and to a bit of a lesser degree moral responsibility for January 6th. The only reason I thought Trump even had a chance in 2020 was that his base enthusiasm was higher than Biden’s.
The challenge for other Republican candidates is to convince the base that Trump’s time as an effective leader for their causes has passed, and for that Governor Ron DeSantis appears best positioned among the announced candidates at this time. I think the other Republicans must tread carefully regarding criticism of policies under Trump, especially ones in which the Republican Congress clearly voted for, and should portray themselves as the future while Trump is too focused on the past and on his personal animosities. Frankly, there is a mountain of evidence to present for the case against him running again, but will other candidates be able to present it effectively? And what’s more, will the base voters view issues as the endgame or Trump himself as the endgame? If its the former, insurgents stand a real chance of winning. If the latter, the primary is as good as Trump’s. Other Republicans cannot let Trump frame the debate, for if they do, the primary is, again, as good as his. Hillary Clinton made that mistake when dealing with Trump as instead of trying to make the case as to why her record as an insider produced results for the nation, she tried to hold that being a woman was in itself being an outsider, which I doubt was convincing to anyone who didn’t already support her. Again, I think DeSantis is best positioned at this time to pull this off.
As for the Democrats, the only person to present a challenge for Biden in any way so far has been Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a man who represents the conspiracist perspective from the left who would have absolutely zero consideration in this race if it were not for his father’s name.
References
2000 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Wikipedia.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
2000 Republican Party presidential primaries. Wikipedia.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries
Jones, J.M. (2003, September 24). Clark Bolts to Front of the Democratic Field. Gallup.
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Nationwide opinion polling for the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Wikipedia.
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Nationwide opinion polling for the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries. Wikipedia.
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Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Wikipedia.
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Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries. Wikipedia.
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Opinion polling for the 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries. Wikipedia.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2004_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
Poll shows Democratic race tightening. (2004, January 7). CNN.
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https://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/06/elec04.prez.poll/index.html
Rothenberg, S. (2019, July 9). What we can learn from the 2004 presidential race. Roll Call.
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https://rollcall.com/2019/07/09/what-we-can-learn-from-the-2004-presidential-race/
Whitesides, J. (2008, January 16). Obama, Clinton tied in 2008 Democratic race. Reuters.
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