I figure it was appropriate to feature a picture of Theodore Roosevelt, given that his third party outpolled one of the two major parties.
A substantial factor in this election, despite the conviction of Donald Trump of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records (which could be overturned on appeal), I think will remain the candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a man who frankly would not be getting any consideration for president if it were not for his last name. I think it is worthwhile looking at elections in which a third-party candidate took 5% or more of the vote from the election to see how it impacted the race. Perhaps this will be a controversial move on my part, but I have excluded the 1948 election despite there being two other candidates. The reason is both the State’s Rights Party (Dixiecrats) and the Progressive Party of Henry Wallace combined didn’t get 5%, even though Thurmond won four states.
Elections in Which the President’s Party Won with a Third-Party Candidate Who Got At Least 5% of the Vote:
1832
In 1828, Andrew Jackson had achieved a populist victory in his defeat of President John Quincy Adams. Opponents to Jackson’s reelection in 1832 included Henry Clay of the newly formed Whig Party, the Anti-Masonic Party with William Wirt, and John Floyd of the Nullifier Party. Jackson in this election scored a clear majority for reelection given his power in the western states, with Wirt winning Vermont and Floyd, more extreme than the Democrats of the day on questions of state’s rights, winning South Carolina. The Whig Party just wasn’t ready quite yet to win an election, particularly not against Jackson, seen by many as representative of the “common man” of his day.
1856
Although the Democrats had an incredibly troubled presidency with Franklin Pierce, Pierce did not get renominated, with the Democrats picking a man who had been out of the country for most of Pierce’s presidency in James Buchanan. This was the first presidential election of the newly formed Republican Party with John C. Fremont, and the American Party (“Know Nothing”) with former President Millard Fillmore. Fremont only had appeal in the anti-slavery North, and Buchanan was able to pull off some significant wins in the North, including his home state of Pennsylvania.
1924
Although the Republicans had a fracture from Robert La Follette’s split from the party that won the state of Wisconsin and commanded 16% of the vote, the Democratic Party’s fracture was even more substantial, producing a weakened compromise candidate in John W. Davis. Coolidge getting the majority of the vote demonstrated that conservatism was the preferred ideology of the election.
1996
Ross Perot’s second run as an Independent didn’t work nearly as well for him as his first, as the economy was good and rising in 1996, with him scoring 8% of the vote.
Elections in Which the President’s Party Lost:
1824
1824 may be a bit of a strained example and one of interpretation, as this was the election in which the dominant party, Jefferson’s “Democratic-Republicans”, collapsed into factions, and this requires me counting the factions as parties. John Quincy Adams winning this controversial election of four candidates I suppose was a departure from the Democratic-Republican’s Jeffersonian origins, with the losses of Jackson and William H. Crawford of the Old Republicans constituting the loss of the truest Jeffersonians.
1848
The 1848 election saw the loss of Democratic nominee Lewis Cass, aiming to succeed Democrat James K. Polk, with war hero Zachary Taylor of the Whig Party. The third-party candidate was former President Martin Van Buren of the Free Soil Party. Although he won no states, he got 10% of the vote. The Free Soil Party stands as the first distinctly anti-slavery party to run a presidential candidate.
1860
The tensions leading up to the War of the Rebellion have boiled over by this point and the Democratic Party as a unified force has collapsed, with there being four candidates for president: Republican Abraham Lincoln, Southern Democrat John C. Breckinridge (who would side with the Confederacy), Constitutional Union candidate John Bell (who would also side with the Confederacy), and Northern Democrat Stephen Douglas (who would remain loyal to the Union). This election was interesting because the candidate who scored the most electoral votes aside from Lincoln was Breckinridge, but he came in third in popular votes, while Stephen Douglas came second in popular votes but came in dead last in the electoral vote, only winning Missouri. Lincoln only won the election with 39.8% of the vote, as if the highly fractured nature of the United States needed to be highlighted more.
1892
The 1890 midterm elections were a pretty good indicator that the presidency of Republican Benjamin Harrison was in trouble, and this would only get worse with the entry into the election of the Populist Party’s candidate, James B. Weaver, who netted 8.5% of the vote from agricultural regions of the countrie. Weaver would only serve to cost Harrison states he would have probably won otherwise, including the newly admitted Idaho and North Dakota.
1912
The 1912 election stands out in a number of ways. It constitutes a horrible election for conservatism with the leading contenders being Democrat Woodrow Wilson and Progressive (Bull Moose) Theodore Roosevelt. The Republican ticket actually came in third, both on popular and electoral votes, with Taft only prevailing in Utah and Vermont. The Socialist Party’s candidate, who I wrote about previously, got 6% of the vote. In its time, it served as a complete repudiation of the Taft Administration and as a ringing endorsement of progressive politics. Had Theodore Roosevelt lived to 1920, he would have run for president once more.
1968
The 1968 election stood as a referendum of the Johnson Administration as well as the Vietnam War, and although Republican Richard Nixon’s win was narrow, there was a substantial third-party presence in George Wallace of the American Independent Party. Wallace, a segregationist, won 13.5% of the vote and five Southern states. The combined vote of the Republicans and the American Independent Party indicated a deep dissatisfaction with the Johnson Administration.
1980
The 1980 election constituted a referendum of the Carter Administration and was largely a repudiation of liberalism. Complicating matters was the entry of Congressman John B. Anderson (R-Ill.) as an Independent. Although once a staunch conservative, Anderson had moderated considerably in his career, and felt he could not support Reagan. His presence on the ticket probably cost Carter a few states, such as Massachusetts, which Reagan barely won. Although some of Anderson’s vote may have gone to Carter, some of it would have gone to Reagan as well. In other words, Anderson simply highlighted Carter’s lack of popularity rather than serving to spoil his efforts or guarantee Reagan’s win.
1992
Let’s face facts: George H.W. Bush was not a particularly inspiring president or candidate. However, I think he was a good man and honestly a decent president, he just lacked the touch that men like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had with the American public. To make matters worse, Bush had a recession on his hands, and he seemed out of touch. Although in retrospect, this recession was not particularly bad, it nonetheless opened the door for others. One of these people was Independent Ross Perot, CEO of Electronic Data Systems and Perot Systems, who was in some ways a precursor as a candidate of Donald Trump, namely in his critiques of “free trade” and his emphasis on illegal immigration. Although Republican partisans have argued that Bush would have won the election had Perot not entered, this is unknowable (Trende).
Overall, I say watch RFK Jr.’s polling when it comes to whether Biden gets another term or Trump pulls through. RFK Jr. is a bit of a wildcat choice, as I can see him eating into Biden’s base as well as Trump’s with his anti-establishment message. Just to be clear, RFK Jr. has zero chance of winning this election, but I think he has a good shot at being a spoiler. If he gets 5% or more, the history I have presented tells us Biden has a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
References
Trende, S. (2019, July 10). We Don’t Know Whether Perot Cost Bush in 1992. RealClearPolitics.
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